Paul Christiano has bet me $500 at even odds that a self-driving car can be reliably hailed by a member of the general public in at least 10 North American cities by July 2023.
Details: At least 8 cities must be outside San Fransisco Bay Area. The car must available on at least 50% of days, i.e., not confined to very narrow weather or traffic situations. The car must be self-delivering, in the sense that it drives itself to the user, but not necessarily fully self-driving, in the sense that the user might need to drive it to the destination. (It’s easy to imagine tech and regulatory scenarios where self-driven cars are limited to speeds that are unacceptably slow during transportation of passengers, like the ~20 mph that Google’s car usually does, but are sufficient for getting to the hailing passenger if the density is high enough.) Carl Shulman will adjudicate any edge cases.
I ascribe a 45% chance that a self-delivering car reaches this threshold, and 38% chance that a fully self-driving car does.
People I know build great stuff!
My brother Will is an electrical engineer at Apple. He has been heavily involved in improving Apple display technology for the past two years, especially the True Tone feature and especially with the iPad Pro 9. Well, the reviews from the experts are in:
The Absolute Color Accuracy of the iPad Pro 9.7 is Truly Impressive as shown in these Figures. It is the most color accurate display that we have ever measured. It is visually indistinguishable from perfect, and is very likely considerably better than any mobile display, monitor, TV or UHD TV that you have.
LaTeX in commentsInclude [latexpage] to render LaTeX in comments. (More.)
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- Jess Riedel This prompted me to take an old email where I listed some models of branching... – Oct 12, 3:16 AM
- interstice Thanks. Do you know of any systems, toy or real, where we can identify a... – Oct 11, 10:06 PM
- Jess Riedel Great question. It is not obvious that we should define branches from the tensor structure... – Oct 10, 8:00 PM
- interstice Right, so to argue that the branches evolve independently, one must first define what branches... – Oct 10, 4:19 PM
- Jess Riedel You're right that the criteria for defining branches I give in the paper doesn't make... – Oct 05, 2:33 PM
- interstice I have a stupid(?) question. The criteria you give in the paper doesn't involve time-evolution... – Oct 05, 12:36 PM
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